5th March 2025
*Coal*
European gas prices continued to decline sharply, with shorter-term contracts down around 6%, dragging API2 swaps lower, though to a lesser extent. In contrast, Newcastle coal for April 2025 loading traded over $1 higher than last week, lending some support to NEWC swaps. Meanwhile, international thermal coal prices have slumped under pressure from high inventories among major importers. Chinese buyers have mostly halted spot purchases, while India’s demand remains limited to lower-CV coal for power generation, offering little market support.
*Brent Crude*
US tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China took effect yesterday, triggering fears of a global trade war and weakening the US dollar. This sparked a broad selloff, with WTI down 3.6% and Brent falling 3.5%. Adding to the pressure, OPEC+ confirmed plans to increase output from April. Brent was trading at $68.07, down 3.51% at 16h31 GMT.
*Dutch TTF Gas*
Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Ukraine, kept the market cautious, while warmer-than-usual weather put further pressure on European natural gas prices. Dutch TTF is nearing a two-month low of €41/MWh, with the EU delaying proposals to phase out Russian gas, prompting traders to unwind long positions. Dutch TTF gas was down 4.12% to €41.06 at 16h40 GMT.
*Iron Ore*
DCE iron ore futures continued to slide, with the I2505 contract closing at 771 yuan/mt, down 1.34%. Traders held back offers, and steel mills remained cautious, leading to weak transactions. PB fines fell 5 yuan/mt in Shandong (775 yuan/mt) and Tangshan (785 yuan/mt).
A domestic meeting confirmed steel production controls through 2025, reinforcing bearish sentiment. US tariffs on China added pressure, pushing prices to new lows. Market focus now shifts to SMM steel inventory data—a decline could support pig iron demand. SGX TSI 62% iron ore was at $101.50 at 16h15 GMT.
*Copper*
Copper prices surged over 5% on COMEX after US President Donald Trump suggested a 25% tariff on copper imports. This lifted LME copper, which rose 2.61% to $9584 for the 3-month contract. Additional support came from China’s decision to maintain its 2025 economic growth target at ~5%, despite challenges from trade tensions and the struggling real estate sector.
