10th February 2025
*Coal*
NEWC swaps continued their downward trajectory today, pressured by ongoing weakness in the physical Newcastle market. However, signs of stabilisation emerged compared to last week.
Meanwhile, European gas prices surged nearly 5% on the day, supported by forecasts of colder weather sweeping across the region. The strength in gas prices provided some support to API2 swaps, although they still lagged behind the movement in NEWC.
*Brent Crude Oil*
Brent crude bounced back today, driven by bargain hunting following last week’s third consecutive weekly decline. Market sentiment remained cautious due to ongoing concerns over global trade.
Adding to the uncertainty, former U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Sunday that new 25% tariffs on U.S. steel and aluminium imports would take effect today. Meanwhile, rising U.S. crude inventories have added downward pressure on oil prices, with the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reporting an 8.7-million-barrel increase in U.S. stockpiles last week.
On the supply side, OPEC+ confirmed its plan to incrementally raise production by 122,000 barrels per day over the next 18 months, starting in April. As of 15:15 GMT, Brent crude was trading at $75.44, up 1.04%.
*Dutch TTF Natural Gas*
European gas prices extended their gains today as an intensifying cold snap accelerated withdrawals from already dwindling storage levels.
According to Gas Infrastructure Europe, EU gas storage stood at just 49% capacity as of Saturday, significantly lower than the 67% recorded at the same time last year. Germany, in particular, has seen elevated daily net withdrawals due to reduced wind power generation.
Dutch TTF gas prices surged over 4%, exceeding €58.00/MWh, as traders responded to tightening supply and rising demand.
*Iron Ore*
Dalian iron ore futures fluctuated throughout the session before settling higher. The most-traded I2505 contract on the DCE closed at 826.5 yuan/mt, marking a 0.79% gain for the day.
Early in the session, market sentiment was dampened by reports that Donald Trump plans to introduce a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminium imports starting February 10. However, as traders reassessed the potential impact, prices rebounded.
Further support came from heavy rains in Brazil, which disrupted iron ore shipments, tightening global supply. In the near term, these supply-side disruptions are expected to keep prices firm, albeit with continued volatility.
On the SGX, TSI 62% Fe iron ore edged up 0.13% to $106.37 as of 15:24 GMT.
*Copper*
Copper prices pushed higher today, bolstered by tightening supply concerns and strong demand from both China and the U.S.
Supply-side constraints in Chile, the world’s largest copper producer, are intensifying as aging mines and maintenance delays slow production. Meanwhile, Chinese buyers have returned to the market following the Lunar New Year holiday, adding further support to prices.
In the U.S., demand remains robust as buyers stockpile ahead of potential new tariffs. However, investors remain cautious following Trump’s announcement of sweeping 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports, which are set to take effect later today. Additional tariff measures are expected to be unveiled in the coming days.
As tensions mount, China’s retaliatory tariffs on select U.S. exports are poised to take effect, while European leaders have warned of swift countermeasures should the U.S. target EU goods.
As of 17:20 GMT, LME 3-month copper was trading at $9,453, up 0.48% for the day.
