12th February 2025
*Coal*
Coal prices showed some intraday softness before API2 rebounded to close near unchanged, while NEWC finished the session marginally higher. European gas prices weakened, with near-term contracts falling around 3.5% by the day’s end, giving back some of their recent gains. In the physical Newcastle market, trading remained active, with multiple April 2025 loading cargoes changing hands and March 2025 prices holding close to yesterday’s levels.
*Brent Crude*
Brent crude futures retreated over 1.5% to dip below $76 per barrel, snapping a three-day winning streak as rising U.S. crude inventories and persistent inflation concerns dampened market sentiment. After a 3.6% rally over the past three sessions, prices faced downward pressure amid a higher-than-expected 4.1-million-barrel increase in U.S. stockpiles, surpassing forecasts of 3 million barrels. Meanwhile, the latest inflation data cast doubts on near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalling no urgency to ease policy. The EIA also revised its 2025 U.S. crude output forecast slightly higher to 13.59 million bpd, up from 13.55 million bpd.
*Dutch TTF Natural Gas*
European natural gas prices remained supported by forecasts of freezing temperatures, which continue to drive down regional gas stockpiles. Gas Infrastructure Europe reports that EU storage levels stand at 49% capacity—5 percentage points below the five-year average and 18 points lower than last year’s levels. Analysts at ICIS predict European gas demand will surge 17% this month, potentially leaving storage at just 37% by winter’s end—the lowest since 2021-2022. Dutch TTF gas futures were down 0.78% at €55.95/MWh as of 17h10 GMT.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore prices climbed in early Asian trading, buoyed by strong demand and supply constraints. Analysts at Nanhua Futures noted that Chinese steel mills are ramping up operations following the Lunar New Year, though uncertainty lingers over whether domestic demand can be sustained. Some mills have reportedly placed pre-orders to bypass upcoming trade tariffs, adding short-term support to prices. The most-traded iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange rose 0.55% to CNY 825.5/ton, while SGX TSI 62% March iron ore was trading at $106.32 as of 15h10 GMT.
*Copper*
Copper prices edged higher on Wednesday, driven by tightening global supplies. LME three-month copper gained 1.09% to $9,460/mt by 10h50 GMT, after hitting a three-month high of $9,530 earlier in the week. However, the growing spread between COMEX and LME copper prices does not appear to be driven by a short squeeze. COMEX copper cathode inventories have surged to nearly 90,000 mt—the highest in six years—due to shifting U.S. tariff policies under the Trump administration. Since January 2025, repeated tariff adjustments targeting multiple countries, including Mexico, Canada, China, and Europe, have created uncertainty in the market.
