London Commodity News
6th January 2026
Prices at 16h30 GMT
Thermal Coal: January API2 – $98.75/mt, January API4 – $87.00/mt
Brent Crude: $61.59/bll – Down 0.27%
Iron Ore: $107.40/mt – Up 0.66%
LME 3-Month Copper: $13,280/mt – Up 2.13%
Commodity markets traded with a firmer bias, supported by geopolitical developments, supply-side constraints, and early-year positioning, although ample supply in some markets continues to cap upside.
Coal
Coal prices posted firmer gains, with sections of the NEWC curve rising by more than $2. European gas prices partially retraced, with front-month contracts up around 2.5%, though volatility remains elevated compared with recent weeks. The physical Newcastle market was relatively steady, while the DES ARA market showed improved support.
Brent Crude
Brent crude futures hovered around $61.6 per barrel on Tuesday, stabilising after a volatile Monday session that ended 1.7% higher amid heightened geopolitical tensions linked to Venezuela. Investors continue to assess the implications of recent US actions, including military intervention and the removal of President Nicolás Maduro, on global oil supply.
Despite Venezuela holding the world’s largest proven crude oil reserves, analysts broadly agree that any near-term disruption to exports is unlikely to materially impact global prices. Years of underinvestment and infrastructure decay have left Venezuelan output at below 1% of global supply, significantly limiting its influence on the market. Venezuelan crude is also heavy and sour, trading at a steep discount to WTI and requiring complex and capital-intensive processing, which further constrains investment appeal.
More broadly, oil prices remain under pressure from ample global supply. Saudi Arabia has cut its official selling prices to Asia for a third consecutive month, signalling softer demand conditions, while OPEC+ has reaffirmed its decision to keep production levels unchanged through the first quarter.
US President Donald Trump said US oil companies could be “up and running” in Venezuela’s oil sector within 18 months, suggesting Washington sees an opportunity for US firms to revive production, potentially as compensation for assets expropriated nearly two decades ago. However, industry sources cited by Reuters indicated that major US oil companies, including Exxon and ConocoPhillips, have yet to engage in concrete discussions, and analysts estimate that rehabilitating Venezuela’s oil industry would require more than $100 billion over a decade, even under favourable political and security conditions.
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures advanced today, supported by improving sentiment following the resumption of Chinese trading after the New Year holiday. The most-traded May contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed at 801 yuan per tonne, up 0.69%, after surging in the afternoon session. Spot prices also edged higher, with PB fines trading at 805–808 yuan/t in Shandong and 820–826 yuan/t in Hebei. Support came from easing blast furnace maintenance, with the latest data showing maintenance-affected volumes falling week on week, and expectations that hot metal production will rebound slightly. Pre-Lunar New Year restocking by steel mills has also underpinned prices, although actual spot transactions remained moderate, with mills largely purchasing on a hand-to-mouth basis.
On the supply side, global iron ore shipments rose modestly last week, while port arrivals declined, suggesting inventories may begin to rebuild in the near term, which could limit further upside. Nonetheless, with steel production restrictions easing and molten iron output expected to rise, iron ore prices are likely to remain firm but volatile in the short term.
Copper (LME)
Copper prices surged to fresh record highs, breaking above $13,000 per metric tonne for the first time, driven by tightening global supply and uncertainty over potential US import tariffs. Three-month futures on the London Metal Exchange traded around $13,170/t after earlier reaching above $13,380/t, extending a rally that followed last year’s 42% gain—the strongest annual performance since 2009. The move has been fuelled by repeated mine disruptions and accelerated stockpiling in the United States as traders position ahead of possible trade measures.
Market attention is focused on a US Department of Commerce review due by 30 June, which will determine whether refined copper imports face tariffs from 2027 onward. Anticipation of these measures has tightened supply outside the US, a situation exacerbated by strike action at Capstone Copper’s Mantoverde mine and delays at other projects. With years of underinvestment leaving little spare capacity, inventories remain thin—London Metal Exchange stocks have fallen to their lowest since mid-November—leaving prices highly sensitive to further supply disruptions or shifts in trade policy.
Overall, commodity markets remain driven by supply-side narratives and geopolitical risk rather than demand acceleration. With energy markets balancing ample supply against political uncertainty, and base metals facing structurally tight conditions, volatility is likely to persist as 2026 unfolds.