23rd April 2026
Markets remained firmly driven by escalating supply-side risks, with the effective closure of key trade routes continuing to underpin energy prices and influence broader commodity sentiment.
Prices at 16h30 GMT
API2 (April): $102.35/mt
API4 (April): $105.50/mt
Brent Crude: $102.93/bbl, up 1.00%
SGX Iron Ore 62% Fe: $107.20/mt, up 0.05%
LME 3-Month Copper: $13,442/mt, down 1.60%
South Africa Manganese Ore 42Mn/12Fe: $5.40/mtu CIF China
Coal
Energy markets extended gains today amid continued tension around the Strait of Hormuz and no clear signs of de-escalation. Front-month Brent crude and European gas contracts rose by approximately 1.5% and 2% respectively, providing support to coal swaps, with NEWC leading the move higher. However, the physical Newcastle market remains well supplied, capping upside in the prompt portion of the NEWC curve.
Brent Crude
Oil prices held above $100/bbl, supported by the continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, which is now effectively blockaded by both the United States and Iran. Reports indicate more than 800 vessels are stranded on either side of the waterway, reinforcing concerns over a sustained supply shock.
Tensions escalated further with reciprocal vessel seizures and increasing military activity, while U.S. President Donald Trump signalled a more aggressive stance on securing the route. At the same time, Iran has sought to assert control over transit through the Strait, including proposals to impose tolling mechanisms on shipping.
The scale of disruption is significant, with estimates suggesting a loss of up to 13 million barrels per day of supply. Despite a ceasefire extension reducing immediate risks to infrastructure, the continued closure of the Strait remains the dominant factor supporting prices. As long as access to this key route is restricted, oil is expected to remain elevated.
Iron Ore
Iron ore prices were marginally weaker, with futures easing slightly despite supportive underlying fundamentals. Spot prices also softened modestly, reflecting cautious market participation.
Demand remains relatively firm, supported by restocking ahead of the Labour Day holiday in China and sustained steel output. At the same time, reduced shipments from Australia and Brazil have contributed to declining port inventories, providing some support to prices.
Overall, the market remains balanced, with short-term weakness offset by underlying demand strength and tightening supply conditions.
Copper
Copper prices retreated from recent highs, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and ongoing uncertainty surrounding geopolitical developments. The continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz and stalled peace negotiations have weighed on sentiment, despite earlier gains driven by improved risk appetite.
Support remains from supply-side constraints, particularly concerns over tightening sulphuric acid availability, which is critical for copper production. However, signs of softer spot demand in China, including a shift from premiums to discounts, suggest some easing in near-term consumption.
As a result, copper is currently trading in a more cautious range, balancing supply risks against evolving demand signals.
Manganese Ore
Manganese ore imports into China surged in March, driven by rising prices, higher production costs, and recovering demand. South African supply led the increase, supported by higher electricity costs and elevated freight rates linked to geopolitical tensions.
Cost pressures remain the key driver, with rising fuel and logistics costs pushing up CIF prices and reinforcing firm pricing sentiment among suppliers. At the same time, demand has shown a mixed recovery, with regional variations in alloy production and operating rates.
Looking ahead, while strong import volumes and cost support remain in place, the market will continue to track downstream demand and production dynamics for direction.
The continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz remains the defining factor across markets, sustaining elevated energy prices and feeding through into broader commodity costs. While some markets are showing resilience on fundamentals, the overarching theme remains one of constrained supply and geopolitical uncertainty, with volatility likely to persist in the near term.
