22nd April 2026
Prices at 16h30 GMT
API2 (April): $102.35/mt
API4 (April): $105.50/mt
Brent Crude: $101.58/bbl, up 3.15%
SGX Iron Ore 62% Fe: $107.30/mt, down 0.05%
LME 3-Month Copper: $13,442/mt, down 1.60%
Markets remained volatile, with energy once again driving sentiment as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensified. Renewed disruptions around key shipping routes continue to ripple across both energy and metals markets.
Coal
Energy markets strengthened further, driven by renewed tensions following attacks on and seizures of vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. This came despite reports that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran had been extended, underscoring ongoing uncertainty around security of supply.
Front-month European gas rose by around 5%, while Brent crude gained approximately 3.5%, moving back above $100/bbl. The stronger energy complex provided support to coal markets, with Newcastle (NEWC) swaps again showing the most pronounced reaction, with parts of the curve rising by around $4.
Brent Crude
Oil prices rose by around 2%, reversing earlier losses after reports of attacks on multiple vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and a lack of progress in U.S.–Iran peace talks. Incidents involving gunfire and vessel seizures by Iranian forces have reinforced concerns over the security of one of the world’s most critical energy transit routes.
While U.S. President Donald Trump indicated a willingness to extend the ceasefire, uncertainty remains over whether all parties will adhere to it. Continued restrictions on shipping through the Strait, combined with tit-for-tat actions between the U.S. and Iran, are sustaining a geopolitical risk premium in oil prices.
Further support has come from tightening U.S. inventories and robust export demand, signalling that global buyers are actively securing supply. With tensions unresolved and supply risks elevated, oil markets are expected to remain highly reactive in the near term.
Iron Ore
Iron ore prices edged higher, supported by steady demand and ongoing restocking ahead of the Labour Day holiday in China. Futures rose modestly, with spot prices following, while trading activity remained stable as steel mills continued to purchase on an as-needed basis.
Demand fundamentals remain firm, with hot metal production holding at elevated levels, although a slight easing is المتوقع in the coming week. Supply-side developments, including the conclusion of benchmark negotiations, have had limited immediate impact on pricing.
In the near term, iron ore is expected to trade with a firm but fluctuating bias, supported by underlying demand and policy expectations, while awaiting further clarity on supply dynamics.
Copper
Copper prices continued to find support, underpinned by strong Chinese production and firm by-product economics. Refined output reached a new record in March, despite negative smelting margins, as elevated sulphuric acid prices provided a key incentive for continued production.
However, newly announced export restrictions on sulphuric acid in China are expected to alter this dynamic. While this may reduce incentives for domestic smelters, it is also likely to tighten global supply of sulphuric acid, a critical input for copper production.
This dual impact introduces further complexity into the copper market, with supply constraints likely to support prices even as production incentives shift. Overall, copper remains supported, though increasingly influenced by developments in related input markets.
Geopolitical tensions continue to dominate market direction, particularly through their impact on energy flows and input costs. While metals remain supported by underlying demand, the broader complex is likely to stay volatile as markets respond to ongoing uncertainty around supply routes and diplomatic progress.
