27th August 2025
Coal
Coal swaps extended their decline amid broader energy market volatility, with API2 and API4 contracts falling around $2 at parts of the curve. European gas prices also weakened, with shorter-dated contracts closing nearly 3% lower, while oil managed a modest rebound by the end of the session. In the physical market, Newcastle attracted slightly firmer bids, though DES ARA saw softer interest, offering little support to swaps.
Brent Crude
Oil futures recovered after yesterdays sharp fall, with Brent climbing to $67.6/bll as U.S. government data showed stronger-than-expected draws across crude and products. Commercial crude inventories fell 2.39 million barrels to 418.3 million, while supplies at the key Cushing hub dropped 838,000 barrels. Gasoline stocks fell 1.2 million barrels, and distillates declined 1.8 million, defying forecasts for a build. The figures reinforced confidence in firm U.S. fuel demand despite concern that tariffs could dent consumption ahead. Washington added pressure to trade sentiment by imposing a 50% tariff on Indian imports, the steepest applied to an Asian nation, in retaliation for New Delhi’s continued Russian oil purchases. Indian refiners, however, signalled little change to buying strategies.
Spot Brent at 16h42 BST – $66.99/bll, up 0.42%
European LNG
European natural gas futures slipped more than 2% today , ending a four-day rally, as traders weighed upcoming Norwegian maintenance against lingering geopolitical risk. Planned works will trim flows, though curbs at the Troll field are expected to be lighter than feared. Storage remains a key focus, with EU reserves at 75.5% versus 91% a year ago, leaving the bloc less well-prepared for winter. By country, Germany sits at 68.6%, Italy 87.4%, and France 83.8%. Meanwhile, tensions remain high after Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy sites and renewed U.S. warnings of further sanctions. President Trump reiterated his threat of tougher measures within two weeks if peace talks stall.
Spot Dutch TTF Gas at 16h42 BST – €32.58/MWh, down 2.63%
Iron Ore
The iron ore market was subdued, with little movement in spot transactions. Ex-factory prices for 66% grade concentrates were quoted at 720–730 yuan/mt (wet basis, excl. tax), as sellers held firm and resisted lowering offers. Buyers remained cautious, with mills purchasing only as needed and pressing for discounts. Steel production continues at normal levels without widespread maintenance, but both supply and demand remain muted, leaving the market at a near stalemate. In the short term, concentrate prices are expected to stay volatile within a narrow band.
Spot TSI 62% iron ore fines on SGX at 15h28 BST – $101.75/mt
Copper (LME)
Copper slipped after four sessions of gains, pressured by a stronger dollar, rising inventories, and renewed demand concerns from China. Chinese industrial profits fell for a third consecutive month in July, though the decline was smaller than in May and June, with manufacturing profits rising 6.8%. A firmer dollar also weighed on sentiment, driven by political concerns after U.S. President Trump dismissed Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, raising questions about central bank independence. Rising inventories in both LME and Comex warehouses further undermined prices, leaving traders cautious despite earlier optimism.
LME 3-month Copper at 16h38 BST – $9761.50/mt, down 0.74%
Commodity markets remain finely balanced, with oil supported by firm demand signals while gas and metals struggle under weaker fundamentals and macro pressures. Geopolitics and trade policy remain central drivers, leaving sentiment fragile across the complex.
