26th August 2025
Commodity markets traded mixed today as energy contracts moved in different directions, with coal regaining some ground even as gas and crude oil softened.
Coal
Coal prices saw a modest recovery, with both API2 and Newcastle swaps up around $1 across the curve. This came despite European gas prices easing, particularly on the shorter end where losses of about 1.5% were recorded, and Brent crude oil falling 2% amid ongoing volatility. Physical coal markets were comparatively steady, with little movement in traded levels, but the firmer swaps suggest underlying resilience in the coal complex.
Brent Crude
Oil prices came off over 2% today after climbing nearly 2% in the previous session, as investors reassessed the outlook for the Russia–Ukraine conflict and its implications for fuel supplies. Additional focus has turned to looming U.S. tariffs on India, the third-largest buyer of Russian crude, with Washington considering duties of up to 50% on Indian exports in retaliation for its continued Russian oil purchases. On the demand side, expectations for looser U.S. monetary policy helped cap the downside, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalling last Friday that a September rate cut remains possible, potentially supporting economic activity and energy demand. Traders are also awaiting the American Petroleum Institute’s weekly stock data later today for further market direction.
Spot Brent at 17h36 – $66.75/bll, down 2.15%
European LNG
European natural gas futures slipped over 1% in early trade, halting a four-day rally, as markets balanced Norwegian maintenance disruptions with broader geopolitical risks. Planned works at several facilities will curtail flows, though expected cuts at the key Troll field are seen as less severe than initially feared. Storage builds continue across the bloc, now at 75.5% versus 91% this time last year, with levels at 68.6% in Germany, 87.4% in Italy, and 83.8% in France. Geopolitical risks remain elevated as Ukraine continues strikes on Russian energy sites, while the U.S. signalled fresh sanctions on Moscow. President Trump has warned that tougher measures could be announced within two weeks if peace talks fail to progress.
Spot Dutch TTF Gas at 17h37 – €33.55/MWh, down 0.13%
Iron Ore
The iron ore market continued to see sluggish supply and demand dynamics. Stricter environmental controls have led to temporary production halts at concentrating plants, with transportation bottlenecks adding further pressure. Many producers remain shut for holidays, and only limited activity has been reported to satisfy immediate demand. Meanwhile, steel mills are entering short-term maintenance cycles, reducing hot metal production and weighing on consumption. However, the short-lived nature of these shutdowns suggests the overall impact will remain limited. With iron ore futures showing recent strength, some upward momentum for domestic ore concentrate prices cannot be ruled out, despite weak trading fundamentals.
Spot TSI 62% iron ore fines on SGX at 17h38 – $101.53/mt, down 0.07%
Copper (LME)
Copper prices drew support from expectations of U.S. monetary easing after Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at a potential rate cut at September’s meeting during his Jackson Hole speech. The dovish shift lifted broader risk sentiment, even as the U.S. dollar attempted to rebound from a four-week low. Supply concerns added a further layer of support, after a U.S. federal appeals court temporarily blocked a key land transfer required for Rio Tinto and BHP to advance a major copper project in Arizona, casting uncertainty over long-term U.S. output. Market participants remain cautious, balancing policy expectations with supply disruptions and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
LME 3-month copper at 17h33 – $9837.50, up 0.46%
Commodity markets remain finely balanced between geopolitical developments, macroeconomic signals, and shifting supply-demand fundamentals. Traders will be closely watching upcoming data and policy updates for clearer direction heading into the end of the week.
