17th June 2025
*Coal*
Volatility in energy markets persisted today, with both European gas and crude oil prices swinging throughout the session before firming into the close—each ending up by approximately 3.5%. The ongoing Israel–Iran conflict remains the primary driver, with fears of potential supply disruptions pushing Brent crude back toward levels seen early Monday. Coal markets followed suit, with prices for API2 and other benchmarks gaining ground, although NEWC swaps remained largely flat for most of the day before edging higher in late trade.
*Brent Crude*
Oil prices climbed on Tuesday amid renewed concerns that the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran could threaten crude exports from the Persian Gulf. This comes despite the International Energy Agency (IEA) reporting continued growth in global inventories. The recent escalation follows Israel’s airstrikes targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities last week, prompting retaliatory attacks. While no disruption to Persian Gulf exports—responsible for around 20% of global oil supply—has occurred yet, the risk alone is supporting prices. Traders are also weighing potential market impacts from expected new tariffs by former President Trump and increased production quotas from OPEC+. August Brent crude futures were up 3% to $75.44/bbl at 15:42 BST.
*European LNG (Dutch TTF Gas)*
European gas prices extended their rally on Monday, reaching their highest level since early April after rising 4.8% last Friday. ING analysts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson noted that, like oil, LNG markets remain sensitive to threats of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz—a key transit route for global energy flows. Although Europe is currently well-supplied, its dependence on imported LNG makes it vulnerable to geopolitical shocks. After a harsh winter depleted reserves to a three-year low, the continent must rebuild storage in the coming months. Dutch TTF gas traded at €39.42, up 4.02%.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore futures fell below CNY 700/tonne on Tuesday, hitting a three-week low after China’s steel production dropped 6.9% in May—the first monthly decline since Beijing began tackling industry overcapacity in March. The drop raised concerns about weaker demand for raw materials, dragging on sentiment. Investors also turned cautious ahead of this week’s U.S. Federal Reserve meeting, with rate cuts now seen as less likely amid persistent inflation and geopolitical risks. Heightened Middle East tensions, including calls by President Trump for a full evacuation of Tehran, added to market anxiety. SGX TSI 62% iron ore was last quoted at 15:32 BST.
*Copper (LME)*
Copper prices softened on Tuesday as geopolitical tensions and a firmer U.S. dollar weighed on industrial metals. Continued hostilities between Israel and Iran stoked fears of broader conflict, sparking concerns over global growth and commodity demand. The stronger dollar added to pressure, making dollar-denominated metals more expensive for foreign buyers. Three-month copper on the LME slipped 0.1% to $9,697/mt as of 10:17 GMT, and was down 0.46% to $9,653.50 by 15:36 BST.
