16th June 2025
*Coal*
It was another volatile day for energy prices as the ongoing Israel–Iran escalation continued to inject uncertainty into the markets. European gas prices climbed roughly 3% earlier in the session before retreating, leaving the front month virtually unchanged. Crude oil prices similarly opened higher but fell over the course of the day, with the front month ending down just over 2%. Coal prices garnered some support from the gas rally, with API2 trading about $2 higher before easing later in the afternoon.
*Brent Crude*
Oil prices pulled back from four-month highs early Monday, despite ongoing hostilities between Israel and Iran. While the conflict entered its fourth day, fears of disruption to Persian Gulf shipments—accounting for roughly 20% of global supply—remained subdued. Brent surged on Friday after Israel struck Iranian nuclear facilities and Iran responded with missile attacks. However, Israel has so far avoided targeting Iran’s oil infrastructure, allowing markets to refocus on oversupply concerns. August Brent futures fell 3.85% to $71.37/bbl at 15:56 BST.
*European LNG (Dutch TTF Gas)*
European gas futures spiked above €38/MWh earlier today, the highest in over ten weeks, as tensions between Israel and Iran intensified. The main worry is a potential threat to the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for nearly 20% of global LNG flows. While Qatari LNG makes up less than 4% of Europe’s supply, any disruption could ripple through global markets. With most Russian pipeline gas lost, Europe remains reliant on stable imports—especially as warmer weather drives up cooling demand. By 16:00 BST, Dutch TTF gas was up 0.50% at €37.73/MWh.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore futures edged up to around CNY 705/tonne on Monday but remained range-bound as markets digested mixed data from China. May retail sales beat forecasts with the strongest growth in 15 months, pointing to resilient household demand. However, industrial output disappointed, growing at its slowest pace in half a year, highlighting challenges in manufacturing. Meanwhile, China’s steelmakers face intensifying margin pressure as automakers push for lower steel prices amid a price war in the EV sector. August SGX TSI 62% iron ore slipped 0.28% to $93.20/mt.
*Copper (LME)*
Copper prices firmed slightly on Monday, supported by stronger-than-expected Chinese retail figures, though gains were tempered by continued Middle East tensions. SHFE’s most-traded contract rose 0.2% to ¥78,550 ($10,938.89) per tonne by 15:03 in Shanghai. LME three-month copper gained 0.43% to $9,688.50/mt. Fresh strikes between Israel and Iran over the weekend added to geopolitical uncertainty, clouding metals demand outlook. The US dollar also extended gains, up 0.25% on Monday and rising another 0.2% in early Asian trade.
