9th June 2025
*Coal*
It was a mixed start to the week, with API2 gaining early support from a strong July DES ARA bid, pushing prompt swaps up by as much as $2.50 before easing later in the session as European gas prices retraced. Meanwhile, Newcastle coal struggled for direction throughout the day and ultimately closed slightly softer.
*Brent Crude*
Brent crude rose to a one-month high, with August futures up 0.68% to $66.93/bbl by 16:00 BST. Optimism over renewed U.S.–China trade talks supported sentiment, easing fears of a global slowdown. Geopolitical risks also underpinned prices, as Russia launched heavy strikes on Ukraine following Ukrainian attacks on Russian air bases. Meanwhile, OPEC+ continues to unwind supply cuts, adding 411,000 bpd in May and June, with a similar increase due in July, tempering upside potential.
*European LNG (Dutch TTF Gas)*
Dutch TTF gas futures fell nearly 3% to €35.49/MWh as EU storage surpassed 50% capacity—a key milestone in the refill season. While reduced Russian pipeline flows and Norwegian maintenance have tightened supply, weak Asian demand and diverted LNG cargoes have helped balance the market. With inventories starting from a low base, refilling remains a challenge despite short-term relief from seasonal dynamics and sluggish Chinese demand.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore futures eased to CNY 705/mt amid weak Chinese economic data, hovering near eight-month lows. Slowing exports, falling consumer prices, and ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. dampened the demand outlook. July SGX TSI 62% Fe futures dropped 0.5% to $94.15/mt. While trade talks in London offer a glimmer of hope, sentiment remains cautious despite signs of thawing, including resumed Boeing deliveries and China’s temporary rare earth export approvals.
Copper (LME)
Copper prices rose on tightening supply, with LME three-month copper up 0.94% to $9,794/mt. LME inventories fell 10,000 tons to 132,400 tons, more than halving year-to-date as traders redirect metal to the U.S. amid tariff risks. China’s refined copper output hit records, but global supply disruptions and expectations of broader U.S. import duties continue to support prices. COMEX futures held steady near $4.83/lb after last week’s sharp rally, though some analysts caution that elevated levels could curb demand.
