5th June 2025
*Coal*
The API2 and NEWC swaps rose through the day with parts of the API2 curve up close to $2 and API2 helped higher by stronger European gas prices. Short dated European gas, as well as Brent crude oil, were up just over 1% by the end of the day. Both the physical DES ARA and Newcastle markets appeared to see better support today also helping support the swaps.
*Brent Crude*
Brent crude oil futures rose to $65.7 per barrel on Thursday, after a 1.2% loss in the previous session, supported by expectations of stronger summer demand. As the peak travel season approaches, markets anticipate increased fuel consumption, helping lift prices despite ongoing concerns about oversupply. In the US, crude inventories fell by 4.3 million barrels last week, the largest draw since November, reinforcing the view that demand is picking up. On the supply side, Saudi Arabia is pushing for another significant OPEC+ production increase of at least 411,000 barrels per day in August, and possibly in September. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia cut July crude prices for Asia to near four-year lows, signaling softer demand from that region.
*European LNG (Dutch TTF Gas)*
European gas prices edged slightly higher on Thursday, with July Dutch TTF futures just above 2% on the previous close. Gains were underpinned by persistent concerns over storage replenishment rates ahead of winter and reduced Norwegian pipeline flows due to ongoing maintenance. Although short-term demand remains soft due to mild temperatures, storage levels remain below average for this point in the season, keeping the market sensitive to supply-side risks. LNG imports into Europe continued at steady levels, though some cargoes are reportedly being redirected to the Middle East, tightening availability. Dutch TTF Gas was €36.38/MWh just before 17h00 BST
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore futures continued to rebound today, with the Dalian Exchange’s most-traded September contract (I2509) rising to 710.5 yuan/mt, up 0.85% on the day. Sentiment was buoyed by optimism in the coking coal market and steady demand from steel mills aiming to lock in margins. The limited number of blast furnace maintenance plans suggests pig iron output will remain firm in the short term, lending further support. On the SGX, July TSI 62% fines gained marginally to $95.70/mt, as traders assess near-term demand resilience against still-muted property sector data in China.
*Copper (LME)*
Copper prices were little changed on Thursday, with three-month LME copper hovering at $9,732/mt by 16h40 BST. Market participants remain cautious as they await further clarity on potential U.S. tariffs on copper imports, following this week’s move to double duties on steel and aluminium. A weaker dollar helped provide some support, while continued inventory drawdowns at LME-registered warehouses—now near one-year lows—highlight underlying tightness in physical supply. Meanwhile, mixed economic signals from China have kept sentiment in check, capping gains.
