19th May 2025
*Coal*
Coal markets recovered some ground today, supported by stronger bids in European physical markets and steady buying interest in NEWC swaps throughout the session. Overall, however, the market has lacked clear direction in recent weeks, with price action largely rangebound. China remains the outlier, where domestic coal prices continue to decline steadily. Despite this, the weakness in Chinese pricing has so far been largely ignored by global futures markets.
*Brent Crude*
Brent crude remained under pressure but stable on Monday, weighed by weak Chinese economic data and a US credit rating downgrade. China reported slower-than-expected growth in industrial output and retail sales, raising doubts about its economic recovery. Meanwhile, Moody’s downgraded the US sovereign credit rating by one notch, citing a widening fiscal deficit and rising interest payments—adding to broader concerns about global growth and future oil demand. Losses in crude were cushioned by ongoing uncertainty over US-Iran nuclear talks, which could affect global supply dynamics. On the geopolitical front, US President Trump is expected to speak with Russian President Putin later today, following recent direct Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul. At last look, June Brent was down 0.20% at $64.65/bbl.
*Dutch TTF Gas*
European natural gas prices were rangebound as markets closely monitored geopolitical developments, particularly US efforts to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine. A Trump-Putin call is expected later today, raising speculation over a potential peace deal that could reopen Russian gas flows—though this would conflict with the EU’s plan to eliminate Russian fossil fuel imports by 2027. On the supply side, cooler weather forecasts for northwest Europe and reduced Norwegian gas flows provided some support. Norway’s Kollsnes gas plant began maintenance earlier than planned, with reduced capacity expected through May 22. EU gas storage remains low at 44%—well below last year’s 66.5%. Reflecting this tighter outlook, the EU has lowered its November 1 storage target to 83% from 90%. Dutch TTF front-month futures hovered around €35/MWh.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore futures slipped on Monday, pressured by downbeat Chinese macro data and weak short-term steel demand. April figures showed a slowdown in China’s industrial output and retail sales, while property investment fell 10.3% in the first four months of 2025, following a 9.9% drop in Q1. Dalian’s most-traded I2509 contract closed 0.89% lower at CNY 722.5. Trading activity was moderate, with mills staying cautious. Supply-side dynamics were mixed—shipments rose slightly from Australia and other non-mainstream suppliers but fell from Brazil. On the SGX, June TSI 62% Fe iron ore futures were flat at $99.45/ton at 16:01 BST.
*Copper*
Copper prices edged higher, buoyed by a fourth straight weekly drop in LME inventories and a softer US dollar. Stocks fell to 179,375 metric tons—the lowest level in over 10 months. However, gains were capped by persistent uncertainty over global trade relations following US warnings to countries not negotiating “in good faith.” Market focus remained on copper eligible for delivery against the CME contract or easily swapped for CME-compliant material, driving recent stock withdrawals. At the time of writing, LME 3M copper was up 0.86% at $9,532/mt.
