16th May 2025
*Coal*
It was a relatively stable and subdued trading day across the energy complex. API2 coal prices softened slightly, while other indices remained broadly unchanged. In the physical coal market, bid-offer spreads widened, offering limited directional cues and reflecting a generally quiet tone.
*Brent Crude*
Oil prices slipped in early Friday trade amid concerns of oversupply and speculation surrounding a potential U.S.-Iran nuclear agreement. ING analysts noted that lifting sanctions on Iran could add as much as 400,000 barrels per day to global supply, further pressuring the market. Despite early losses, crude prices staged a modest rebound later in the session, supported by bullish sentiment from this week’s U.S.-China trade developments. Both major benchmarks are still on course for a second consecutive weekly gain. At 14:20 BST, front-month Brent was up 0.59% at $64.44 per barrel.
*Dutch TTF Gas*
European gas prices climbed toward €36/MWh — the highest in over six weeks — as unseasonably cool weather conditions and ongoing geopolitical risks continued to drive demand. Forecasts show colder-than-normal temperatures persisting across continental Europe through mid-next week, lifting consumption particularly in Northwest Europe. Storage remains a key concern, with EU inventories only 43.7% full compared to 65.8% at the same time last year. In response, EU lawmakers voted to lower the November 1 storage target from 90% to 83%, acknowledging the tighter supply backdrop following a harsh winter. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remain high as talks between Russia and Ukraine failed to progress. At last check, Dutch TTF Gas was flat on the day at €35.36/MWh.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange traded within a narrow band today, showing slight afternoon weakness. The most-active I2509 contract closed at CNY 736.5, gaining 1.17% on the day. Market activity remained moderate, with traders adjusting to evolving sentiment and steel mills reporting soft demand for finished products, curbing procurement interest. PB fines in Shandong and Tangshan held steady at CNY 775/mt and CNY 785–790/mt, respectively. Industrial data showed a month-on-month improvement in apparent demand for key steel products, alongside simultaneous declines in both plant and social inventories — a sign of improving fundamentals. Iron ore prices also found support from easing US-China trade tensions, which lifted overall metals market sentiment. However, longer-term demand headwinds persist due to China’s struggling property sector and emissions-related production cuts in the steel industry. On the SGX, June TSI 62% Fe futures were marginally lower, down 0.10% at $99.60 as of 14:59 BST.
*Copper*
Copper prices extended losses for a second consecutive session on the London Metal Exchange, with the three-month benchmark last trading at $9,509/tonne, down 0.66% by 14:44 BST. While the recently announced 90-day tariff reprieve between the U.S. and China offered initial relief, market participants remain cautious amid lingering uncertainty over long-term global demand. Soft physical demand indicators out of China further weighed on sentiment, with Yangshan copper premiums easing slightly — reflecting a tepid appetite for imports. Broader risk-off tone in commodities also contributed to the metal’s subdued performance.
