14th May 2025
*Coal*
There was broad weakness across the coal swaps market today, with API2 leading the decline. The rest of the energy complex followed suit, as European gas prices also softened. Oil prices stabilised after recent volatility, finding a firmer footing. In physical markets, DES ARA was slightly better offered, while activity in Newcastle remained muted.
*Brent Crude*
Oil prices softened on Wednesday after a surprise increase in U.S. oil inventories, sparking fears of oversupply. The American Petroleum Institute reported a 4.29 million-barrel rise, contrary to expectations for a 2.4 million-barrel drop. Additionally, OPEC+ plans to add 411,000 barrels per day as it unwinds 2.2 million barrels per day in voluntary cuts. Brent crude for June was down 0.33%, trading at $65.90/bll at 15:16 BST.
*Dutch TTF Gas*
European natural gas prices started the day strong, trading above €35/MWh, supported by higher LNG prices and competition from Asia. Strong bidding in India and China, along with setbacks in longer-term supply, kept prices elevated. European gas inventories stood at 40% full at the start of the month, down from 62.7% last year. The EU also announced plans to phase out Russian gas and LNG by 2027. Dutch TTF gas continued to track LNG pricing as utilities stock up for summer. By the afternoon Dutch TTF’s walked back to trade down 2.81% at €34.81/MWh at 16h28 BST.
*Iron Ore*
DCE iron ore futures held steady with the I2509 contract closing at CNY737, up 2.43%. Despite weaker demand expectations, a lower-than-expected U.S. CPI for April sparked optimism for RRR and interest rate cuts. SGX TSI 62%Fe iron ore fines were trading at $101.45/tonne, down 0.20% at 16:05 BST.
*Copper*
Copper prices maintained upward momentum, buoyed by macroeconomic factors and supply-side developments. The LME 3-month copper contract rose 1.09%. Weaker U.S. dollar data, alongside supply concerns from Chile, where Codelco and Rio Tinto are intensifying their collaboration on the Nuevo Cobre project, supported prices. LME 3-month copper was at $9,583.50/tonne at last look.
