Coal
Coal prices softened on Tuesday, diverging from broader strength in the energy complex. While oil and gas gained on optimism over the temporary de-escalation in the US-China trade dispute—Brent crude rose around 2.5%, and European gas edged higher—coal markets showed less resilience.
Short-dated API2 contracts led the declines, with the physical DES ARA market appearing less supported amid lacklustre demand and limited buying interest.
Brent Crude
Oil traded higher for a fourth straight session on Tuesday, supported by easing US-China trade tensions and seasonal demand expectations. The weekend agreement to suspend tariffs for 90 days between the world’s two largest crude consumers buoyed sentiment, though uncertainty lingers over what follows the truce. Prices were also supported by the approaching US Memorial Day holiday, which typically marks the start of the summer driving season. However, rising global supply continues to weigh on the outlook. OPEC+ output increased more than expected in May, up by 411,000 barrels per day, with another 411,000 bpd hike scheduled for June. President Trump’s Middle East visit also drew attention, with Saudi Arabia reportedly pushing for greater output discipline among OPEC members. Brent crude for June delivery was last up 1.53% at $65.53/bbl at 15h34 BST.
Dutch TTF Gas
European natural gas prices rose sharply on Tuesday amid mounting geopolitical risks and stronger LNG competition. The benchmark Dutch TTF contract gained 3.5% to €35.83/MWh, driven by renewed EU threats of sanctions on Russia—including a possible permanent block on Nord Stream 2—if Moscow rejects a proposed 30-day ceasefire. Additional support came from strong Asian LNG demand, particularly in China and India, as utilities continue restocking. European inventories remain low at 40% capacity versus 62.7% this time last year. Meanwhile, the EU is preparing legislation to phase out Russian gas imports by 2027 and ban all spot purchases by end-2025. Lawmakers also voted to lower the seasonal storage target to 83% by November 1 from the current 90%. Prices held gains from last week, bolstered by a broader risk-on environment following US-China tariff reductions.
Iron Ore
Chinese iron ore futures traded around CNY 715/tonne, stabilising after recent declines to six-month lows below CNY 700. Optimism over the US-China tariff pause supported the outlook for global manufacturing and construction, but bearish fundamentals remain. Regulatory uncertainty in China continues to weigh on sentiment. Beijing is considering a ban on pre-completion property sales, threatening liquidity in the already strained real estate sector—a key source of steel demand. Baosteel has indicated a possible nationwide crude steel production cut of up to 50 million tonnes to address oversupply concerns. SGX TSI 62% Fe futures were up 0.80% at $100.85/mt this afternoon.
Copper
Copper prices firmed on Tuesday, underpinned by improved sentiment following the temporary easing of US-China trade tensions. However, the 90-day truce leaves considerable uncertainty in the market. LME 3-month copper was last up 0.56% at $9,573.50 at 15h34 BST. On the supply side, SHFE-monitored copper stocks dropped 70% since February to 80,705 tonnes last week, signalling tightening availability in China. In contrast, COMEX warehouse stocks in the US rose to their highest levels since 2018, as traders redirect shipments amid a potential Washington probe into copper imports that could result in new tariffs.
