26th March 2025
*Coal*
Coal prices opened weaker, extending recent losses before finding support in the afternoon and closing higher. While the physical Newcastle market remains well supplied, this did not stop NEWC swaps from rallying. API2 swaps remained stable despite another decline in European gas prices, where the front-month contract fell around 2%.
*Brent Crude*
Oil prices climbed on Wednesday following a larger-than-expected drop in U.S. inventories, with concerns over supply constraints due to U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela providing additional support. However, the upside remains limited as OPEC+ prepares to gradually restore 2.2 million barrels per day of production cuts over 18 months, beginning in April. Rising output from non-OPEC producers is also expected to balance supply. Brent crude was up 1.02% at $73.13 for April settlement, while WTI rose 1.22% to $69.82.
*Dutch TTF Gas*
European natural gas futures dipped below €41/MWh as milder temperatures reduced energy demand. Market attention is also on a U.S.-brokered agreement between Ukraine and Russia to halt attacks at sea and on energy infrastructure—the first such commitments since Trump took office. The potential easing of tensions weighed on gas prices, with Dutch TTF Gas trading at €40.87, down 0.69% in the afternoon session.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore futures edged higher, supported by seasonal demand, though gains were limited by steel production cuts in China. DCE iron ore futures strengthened after a weak start, fluctuating upward throughout the session. The most-traded I2505 contract closed at CNY780, up 0.19%. Steel mills maintained cautious buying, while traders sold based on market conditions. Blast furnace operations at 242 surveyed mills reached 87.47% as of March 26, up 0.22 percentage points MoM. Meanwhile, SGX April TSI 62% Fe fines gained 1.21% to $103.60.
*Copper*
Copper prices retreated from yesterday’s $10,130 highs as speculation grows over potential U.S. import tariffs. LME 3-month copper fell 1.79% to $9,933, while COMEX futures remained above $5.20/lb. Anticipation of tariffs has triggered a surge in U.S. copper imports, with shipments exceeding 500,000 tons, far above the usual 70,000-ton monthly average. U.S. firms are now exploring South American alternatives to mitigate tariff risks. Meanwhile, Glencore temporarily halted copper shipments from its Altonorte smelter in Chile due to furnace issues, adding to market uncertainty.
