25th March 2025
*Coal*
Coal prices saw notable weakness in the morning, mirroring yesterday’s trend, before API2 prices rebounded in the afternoon, leaving longer-dated contracts slightly higher. NEWC swaps dropped sharply early on but recovered somewhat, though persistent weakness in the physical Newcastle market continued to pressure prices lower. Meanwhile, European gas prices remained steady for much of the day before reports of partial ceasefires between Russia and Ukraine triggered a 3.5% decline in the afternoon.
*Brent Crude*
Oil prices extended gains for a fifth consecutive session as supply concerns mounted. U.S. President Donald Trump threatened 25% tariffs on imports from countries purchasing Venezuelan crude, adding to last week’s tightened sanctions on Iranian oil exports. Despite the administration’s efforts to curb gasoline prices, these measures have fueled a rally. Meanwhile, OPEC+ plans to gradually unwind 2.2 million barrels per day of production cuts over 18 months starting in April, potentially stabilizing supply. Brent crude traded at $72.80 in the PM session, up 0.50%.
*Dutch TTF Gas*
European natural gas prices edged lower as traders evaluated Ukraine peace talks in Saudi Arabia, which focused on a potential maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea to safeguard shipping routes. Speculation suggests a truce could allow limited Russian gas volumes to flow into Europe, but not before 2026. Meanwhile, seasonal pricing trends discourage early storage injections, with traders awaiting a price correction or additional supply. Europe’s LNG reserves remain critically low at 34%, compared to nearly 60% a year ago. Dutch TTF Gas was down 0.69% at €41.92 this afternoon.
*Iron Ore*
DCE iron ore futures opened higher but fluctuated throughout the session before closing at CNY776, up 0.65%. Selling interest among traders remained moderate, while steel mills reduced inquiries. Speculative trading enthusiasm also softened, leading to an average transaction atmosphere. Meanwhile, 62%Fe TSI iron ore fines for April delivery on SGX rose 0.51% to $102.10 this afternoon.
*Copper*
Speculation over a potential 25% U.S. import tariff on copper continues to drive demand. After President Trump signed an executive order investigating copper imports due to national security concerns, more tonnage has flowed into the U.S. as traders capitalize on the price differential between domestic and LME copper prices. Meanwhile, stronger Chinese copper import premiums indicate improved demand. LME three-month copper climbed over 1.3% to $10,081.
