26th February 2025
*LONDON COMMODITY NEWS*
*Coal*
Newcastle coal futures fell to $102 today, nearing four-year lows as oversupply concerns outweighed strong demand. China plans to boost coal output by 1.5% to 4.82 billion tonnes in 2025, while utilities face record-high inventories, up 12% in two months. Indonesia’s production also hit a record 836 million tonnes in 2024, exceeding targets by 18%. Despite rising coal plant construction and increased demand from China’s tariffs on U.S. LNG, the supply glut continues to pressure prices.
*Brent Crude*
Crude oil prices remain under pressure as hopes for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal raise the possibility of eased sanctions and increased Russian supply. Adding to the bearish outlook, former U.S. President Donald Trump has expressed support for boosting Iraqi oil exports. Brent crude was last trading at $72.88, down 0.18% at 16h26 GMT.
*Dutch TTF Gas*
Milder weather across northwest Europe has slowed gas inventory drawdowns, contributing to a decline in natural gas prices. Hopes for a diplomatic resolution in Ukraine have also weighed on sentiment. Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures for March slumped 7.8% to €40.84/MWh as of 16h18 GMT. Additionally, investor positioning has exacerbated the selloff, with investment funds cutting back on bullish bets after nearing record highs earlier this month.
*Iron Ore*
DCE iron ore futures extended losses, with the most-traded I2505 contract closing at 812 yuan/mt, down 0.98% for the day. Selling interest remained moderate, while steel mills continued small, frequent purchases. In Shandong, PB fines traded at 805-810 yuan/mt, down 0-5 yuan/mt, while in Tangshan, they settled at 820 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from yesterday’s high. Market sentiment was hit by renewed speculation of crude steel production cuts, with reports suggesting reductions of 50 million mt in 2025, 20 million mt in 2026, and 10 million mt in 2027. While this supported finished steel prices, it pressured iron ore, triggering a sharp selloff before a partial recovery. On the SGX, 62% Fe TSI iron ore futures CFR China are trading at $105.75, down 2.56% for the March contract.
*Copper*
Copper prices edged higher as a weaker dollar offset concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump’s directive to investigate potential new tariffs on copper imports. The move, aimed at boosting U.S. copper production and countering China’s growing influence in the market, has added uncertainty to global trade flows. LME three-month copper rose 0.38% to $9,448.50 as of 16h26 GMT.
*Lithium*
Platts reports the following transactions in the lithium market:
- Albemarle sold 100 mt of lithium carbonate (99.3%-100%) at Yuan 107,000/mt ($14,786/mt) EXW Zhangjiagang, China.
- Albemarle sold 100 mt of battery-grade lithium carbonate at Yuan 106,900/mt ($15,036/mt) EXW Meishan.
- Yichun Mining sold 192 mt of battery-grade lithium carbonate at Yuan 106,200/mt ($14,937/mt) EXW China.
