20th February 2025
*Coal*
Coal swaps had a more mixed session today, with prices trading within a narrower range. European gas markets fluctuated throughout the day but ultimately settled slightly lower, adding some bearish pressure to API2 swaps. Meanwhile, the physical Newcastle market remained relatively quiet, offering little directional influence. NEWC swaps mirrored this subdued sentiment, with limited trading activity over the course of the session.
*Brent Crude*
Oil prices ticked higher on Thursday, overcoming pressure from another significant rise in U.S. crude inventories. Despite the bearish impact of rising U.S. stockpiles, supply disruptions from pipeline outages and tighter sanctions on Russian and Iranian exports continued to offer market support. However, crude prices have struggled to hold gains, with WTI down 4.8% over the past month after peaking above $80 per barrel in mid-January.
By 16:35 GMT, Brent crude was trading at $76.79, up 0.97% on the day.
*Dutch TTF Natural Gas*
European natural gas prices remained near €47/MWh, as traders balanced concerns over storage replenishment against hopes for market stabilization. With gas reserves currently at 43%, achieving the EU’s 90% storage target by November is becoming increasingly difficult. In response, Germany, France, and Italy have proposed easing storage regulations to prevent further short-term supply strain. Warmer temperatures and steady LNG imports have slowed withdrawals, but tight supply conditions persist, with major new LNG infrastructure not expected until 2026. Meanwhile, uncertainty over Russian gas flows continues to add volatility.
At 16:40 GMT, Dutch TTF gas was trading at €47.27, up 0.47% on the day.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore prices in China surged to CNY 837 per tonne in February, marking a seven-month high as expectations of a demand recovery strengthened. Data showed that new government bond issuances in China reached CNY 693 billion in January, more than doubling from the previous year, signalling increased government efforts to stimulate the slowing economy. Optimism is growing that China’s property crisis may have bottomed out, with price declines softening to a six-month low in February. On the futures market, TSI 62% Fe iron ore contracts on SGX were trading at $106.72.
*Copper*
LME 3-month copper climbed over 1% today, trading at $9,564.50, driven by renewed hopes of a potential U.S.-China trade deal after President Donald Trump hinted at fresh negotiations with Beijing. Geopolitical factors also bolstered sentiment, with the EU finalizing plans to ban Russian primary aluminium imports as part of a broader sanctions package. Meanwhile, in China, government-imposed restrictions on copper smelting—aimed at curbing overcapacity—have contributed to increased copper imports and falling inventories. However, these constraints have pressured smelting firms, making profitability more challenging in the sector.
