19th February 2025
*Coal*
European gas and power prices faced renewed pressure today, with shorter-dated contracts dropping around 3.5%, while front-month prices retreated toward the mid-€40s. This weakness weighed on API2 swaps, though declines were more modest. In contrast, the physical Newcastle market found support, with buyers stepping in at these levels, providing some stability to NEWC swaps.
*Brent Crude*
The Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian pumping station in Kazakhstan continues to disrupt oil flows, with shipments on the 1.3-million-barrel-per-day pipeline slashed to just 380,000 bpd. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is reportedly reconsidering its plan to phase out 2.2 million bpd of voluntary production cuts, which had been scheduled for gradual increases of 122,000 bpd per month from April. In the U.S., cold weather in North Dakota is expected to reduce oil production by up to 150,000 bpd, further supporting prices. However, ongoing diplomatic talks between the U.S. and Russia over the Ukraine conflict tempered further gains.
By the afternoon session, Brent crude was up 1%, trading at $76.63, while WTI climbed 1.41% to $72.57.
*Dutch TTF Natural Gas*
Traders remain focused on the challenge of replenishing European gas storage ahead of winter, with reserves currently around 43%, well below the 90% target set by the EU for November. In response, Germany, France, and Italy have proposed easing storage mandates to stabilise prices and reduce short-term supply pressures. Warmer weather and increased LNG imports have helped slow withdrawals, but supply remains tight, with major new LNG infrastructure not expected until 2026. Dutch TTF gas futures dropped nearly 5%, trading at €47.58 as of 16:40 GMT.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore prices edged higher, with the most-traded I2505 contract closing at 820.5 yuan/mt, up 1.48% on the day. Traders adjusted sales in line with market trends, while steel mills continued to buy cautiously as needed, keeping overall market activity moderate. Shandong: PB fines traded at 815-818 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from yesterday. Tangshan: PB fines settled at 830-835 yuan/mt, up 5-10 yuan/mt from the previous session.
*Copper*
LME 3-month copper remained largely unchanged, inching up just 0.04% to $9,473.50. Analysts at Citigroup predict copper prices could hold around $9,400 per ton until early April, after which the implementation of U.S. tariffs may drive a drop toward $8,500 within three months.
