London Commodity News
5th May 2026
Prices at 17h30 GMT
API2 (May): _ $110.50/mt
API4 (May): $112.50/mt
Brent Crude: $110.59/bll down 3.36%
SGX Iron Ore 62Fe $109.30/mt up 0.23%
LME 3-Month Copper: $13.104.50/mt up 0.79%
Markets softened modestly after early-week strength, with energy pulling back while underlying geopolitical risks and supply disruptions continue to underpin the broader commodity complex.
Coal
Coal prices diverged from the broader energy complex today, with oil and European gas declining while API2 found support. Brent crude fell by around 3.5% and European gas by approximately 2.5%, although both remain above Friday’s closing levels despite reports of renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend.
Coal prices strengthened across indices, with short- and medium-dated API2 coal leading gains, rising by around $4.
Brent Crude
Brent crude eased on Tuesday following strong gains at the start of the week, as renewed attacks in the Persian Gulf raised concerns over the durability of the US-Iran ceasefire. Prices moved lower after rallying sharply on Monday, reflecting a market increasingly reactive to shifting geopolitical signals.
Tensions remain centred on the Strait of Hormuz, where efforts by the United States to escort vessels have been met with further Iranian retaliation. The disruption continues to materially restrict flows, with only a fraction of typical shipping volumes transiting the strait compared to pre-conflict levels.
Despite the pullback, oil markets remain firmly supported by the scale of supply disruption, with an estimated 10–12 million barrels per day still constrained. The broader impact is feeding through into global fuel costs and inflation expectations, reinforcing concerns over economic growth and energy security.
Iron Ore
No commentary due to public holiday in China. Normal reporting will resume tomorrow.
Copper
Copper prices recovered from recent lows, supported by opportunistic buying and continued confidence in long-term demand fundamentals. Benchmark prices on the London Metal Exchange edged higher after testing three-week lows, with subdued volumes due to holiday closures in China.
The market remains caught between short-term macro headwinds and longer-term structural support. Escalating geopolitical tensions are raising concerns over demand through higher energy costs and tighter financial conditions, while supply-side dynamics and electrification trends continue to underpin sentiment.
A widening premium in US markets, alongside rising COMEX inventories, reflects ongoing trade flow adjustments ahead of potential tariff decisions, adding another layer of complexity to pricing dynamics.
Sulphur
The sulphur market is increasingly being driven by a broader fertiliser and industrial supply crisis rather than standalone fundamentals. Disruptions to Middle Eastern exports, combined with China’s withdrawal from the export market for sulphuric acid, have removed key balancing mechanisms across the global supply chain.
This has created a tightening feedback loop between sulphur availability and downstream demand, particularly in phosphate fertiliser production, where supply shortages are now translating directly into higher prices and reduced output.
The impact is becoming more pronounced across import-dependent regions, including India, Africa, Southeast Asia and Latin America, where access to material is increasingly constrained. Production cutbacks are spreading across fertilisers and industrial sectors, reinforcing structural tightness.
With limited new capacity expected in the near term and logistics still heavily disrupted, the market is likely to remain constrained through 2026, with supply security continuing to take precedence over price.
Overall, while energy markets have eased from recent highs, the underlying structural tightness across both energy and industrial supply chains remains intact, leaving markets highly sensitive to further geopolitical developments.
