11th March 2026
Prices at 17h30 GMT
Thermal Coal: March API2 $121.00/mt & API4 $111.00/mt
Brent Crude: $91.70/bll – Up 4.44%
SGX Iron Ore 62%Fe: $104.40/mt – Up 0.29%
LME 3-Month Copper: $13,010/mt – Down 1.02%
Commodity markets continued to react to the evolving geopolitical situation in the Middle East, with energy markets remaining the primary driver of volatility while industrial metals moved largely in response to supply dynamics and macroeconomic signals.
Coal
Energy markets were relatively more stable today, including coal, although prices continued to move within a modest range during the session. European gas and oil traded with some intraday volatility but ultimately finished the day around 4% higher.
Coal markets were supported from the outset. API2 contracts strengthened early in the session before easing slightly later in the afternoon. Newcastle (NEWC) swaps recorded the strongest gains, with parts of the forward curve rising by close to $5.
Brent Crude
Member countries of the International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed to release a record 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves in an effort to stabilise global markets following disruptions caused by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said the release is intended to offset lost supply and ease the immediate pressure on oil markets, although he stressed that the long-term solution remains the restoration of normal shipping through the critical waterway. The scale of the release far exceeds the 182 million barrels released during the early stages of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. However, analysts caution that the measure may only partially offset the disruption, as the Strait of Hormuz typically handles roughly 15–20 million barrels of crude and refined products per day. Even a 400 million barrel release would therefore only compensate for a limited period of lost supply.
Oil prices remained elevated despite the announcement, reflecting continued uncertainty around shipping flows and infrastructure security in the Persian Gulf. Brent crude rose nearly 3% to around $90 per barrel following the announcement, while US benchmark WTI climbed above $85. The market continues to view strategic stock releases as a temporary buffer rather than a structural solution, with prices still highly sensitive to developments in the region. Concerns have intensified further after reports that Iran has begun laying naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a move that could significantly complicate efforts to reopen the route. The prospect of a prolonged disruption has kept a substantial geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices, which remain more than 20% above pre-conflict levels.
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Iron Ore
Iron ore futures traded with a firmer bias, with the most active Dalian contract (I2605) closing 0.90% higher at 787.5 yuan per tonne. Spot prices also edged up slightly by around 2–3 yuan compared with the previous session, although overall trading activity remained relatively subdued.
According to industry surveys, blast furnace utilisation rates at major Chinese steel mills declined modestly this week, with daily hot metal output falling to approximately 2.35 million tonnes. Maintenance activity at several mills in the Hebei region, linked to safety inspections and environmental checks, contributed to the temporary slowdown in demand for iron ore.
Most maintenance cycles are expected to be relatively short, however, and production levels could recover quickly once these inspections conclude. As blast furnaces gradually return to operation, iron ore consumption may begin to improve as early as next week. In the near term, prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with the market balancing softer immediate demand against expectations of a recovery in steel production.
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Copper
Copper prices came under pressure amid a combination of macroeconomic headwinds, rising energy costs and the broader geopolitical uncertainty linked to the conflict in the Middle East. The strengthening US dollar and concerns over inflation — driven partly by surging oil prices — have reduced investor appetite for industrial metals. Market fundamentals have also softened in the short term. Exchange inventories have risen sharply, particularly on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, where stocks recently reached record levels. Increased refined copper output from Chinese smelters, combined with weaker import demand, suggests the tight supply conditions that supported prices earlier in the year may be easing.
On the London Metal Exchange, copper prices fell below $13,000 per tonne after reaching highs near $14,500 earlier in the year. Global exchange inventories have increased by more than 500,000 tonnes since the start of the year, indicating improved physical availability and reducing the urgency of supply concerns that previously supported the market. Nevertheless, the longer-term outlook for copper remains underpinned by structural supply constraints and growing demand linked to electrification, infrastructure and technological development. Analysts continue to view the current weakness as largely sentiment-driven rather than a fundamental shift in the long-term supply-demand balance.
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Commodity markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, particularly those affecting global energy flows. While emergency stock releases may provide short-term relief to oil markets, sustained stability will depend on the reopening of key shipping routes and broader de-escalation in the region. Meanwhile, industrial metals continue to navigate a combination of macroeconomic pressure and evolving supply dynamics.
