4th July 2025
*Coal*
Prices continued to retrace on Friday, with pronounced declines at the front of the curve across both API2 and Newcastle swaps. The sell-off was reinforced by materially better offers emerging in the physical DES ARA and Newcastle markets, adding bearish pressure to the shorter-dated paper contracts. While the European gas market remained relatively stable and closed largely unchanged, it offered little support to coal.
Overall sentiment softened, with the market pausing after last week’s rally and shifting into a consolidation phase amid improving physical availability and fading geopolitical risk.
*Brent Crude*
Oil prices eased for a second day on Friday in thin holiday trade, pressured by rising global supply. OPEC+ is widely expected to approve a fourth consecutive monthly increase of 411,000 barrels per day when it meets Sunday, continuing the rollback of 2.2 million bpd in production cuts. Additional non-OPEC supply is also returning to market, weighing on prices. While a new U.S.-Vietnam trade agreement offered marginal support, uncertainty lingers as key partners like the EU and Japan have yet to secure trade deals ahead of the July 9 tariff deadline. President Trump confirmed letters detailing U.S. import tariff rates would begin circulating Friday. Meanwhile, Washington imposed new sanctions on Iranian oil traders, targeting companies and a “shadow fleet” of tankers. September Brent futures were down 0.97% at $68.13/bbl by 15h27 BST but up 2.5% on the week.
*European LNG (Dutch TTF Gas)*
Dutch TTF gas rebounded to €34/MWh from an eight-week low, supported by changing weather and supply dynamics. While cooling demand is expected to ease as the European heatwave subsides, stronger wind generation in northwest Europe may further suppress gas-fired power demand. Supply remains stable, with steady Norwegian flows and LNG send-outs. Prices remain under pressure from sluggish Chinese LNG demand amid trade tensions and slower economic activity, which has diverted cargoes to Europe.
Dutch TTF Gas was last seen at €33.61, down 0.30% on the day.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore futures advanced to a six-week high, buoyed by improving market sentiment and policy signals from China. A MoM rise in June’s PMI and a surge in special-purpose bond issuance pointed to stronger government support. Expectations for supply-side reform following China’s push to curb cut-throat pricing have also lifted confidence. On fundamentals, steel demand improved slightly while inventory growth was limited, supporting futures. However, spot prices lagged, widening the futures-spot spread. August TSI 62% fines on SGX traded up 0.78% at $96.60/mt.
*Copper (LME)*
Copper prices slipped back below $10,000/mt after touching a three-month high earlier this week. The recent rally, fuelled by U.S. tariff speculation and record copper shipments into the U.S., had driven LME and Chinese inventories to multi-month lows and sparked a sharp squeeze in the nearby spread. While LME stockpiles have slightly recovered, they remain far below Comex levels. Meanwhile, price gains on LME and Comex have outpaced Shanghai, softening import demand from Chinese fabricators. Traders also booked profits ahead of key U.S. labour data that could influence rate expectations and the dollar. LME 3-month copper was down 0.77% to $9,878/mt by 15h31 BST.
