12th June 2025
*Coal*
European energy markets strengthened again on Friday. Short-dated Dutch TTF gas futures gained about 1.5%, extending Thursday’s sharp rally. Coal followed suit: API2 and NEWC swaps added roughly $2 along parts of the curve. Physical DES ARA was modestly better bid, while Newcastle cargoes were slightly better offered.
*Brent Crude*
Oil prices pulled back from a five-week high on Thursday, despite a weaker dollar and escalating tensions in the Middle East. The decline followed the expiration of a U.S. deadline for Iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions, heightening geopolitical uncertainty. In response, the U.S. has begun relocating military dependents from the Gulf, while the UK Maritime Trade Organization issued a warning to vessels regarding increased military activity in the region. At 15:42 BST, August Brent crude futures were down 0.67% at $69.29/bbl.
*European LNG (Dutch TTF Gas)*
European natural gas prices extended gains for a second straight session, with Dutch TTF futures rising above €36/MWh. The rally is being driven by hotter-than-normal weather across the continent, pushing up cooling demand as Europe heads into peak summer. Forecasts show elevated temperatures persisting over the next two weeks, potentially driving demand to its highest level since July 2022. Despite storage reaching just over 50%, levels remain well below average following a depleted winter and the end of Russian gas transit through Ukraine. Ongoing maintenance in Norway is also curbing supply. Dutch TTF gas was last up 0.38% at €36.13/MWh.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore prices remained steady around CNY 705 per tonne as markets digested developments from US–China trade talks. A framework agreement announced in London includes commitments to the Geneva consensus, an easing of China’s rare earth export restrictions, and expanded access for Chinese students to U.S. universities. President Trump declared the deal “done,” while Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed no further tariff increases beyond the existing 55%. However, key details and Chinese confirmation are still pending. Meanwhile, the China Iron and Steel Association warned that ongoing price wars in the EV sector are eroding steel margins, as automakers push for cheaper steel inputs. SGX July 62% Fe futures were down 0.50% at $94.10/mt.
*Copper (LME)*
Copper prices edged higher on Thursday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, although uncertainty around global demand and lingering trade tensions capped gains. President Trump hinted at flexibility in extending the July 8 deadline for a trade agreement with China, while also preparing to issue trade terms to multiple countries. In the physical market, Chinese smelters are reportedly looking to offload spot copper cargoes into the global market to take advantage of stronger international prices despite growing domestic inventories. According to Bloomberg, these plans are still being finalised. At 15:44 BST, LME 3-month copper was up 0.41% at $9,691/mt.
