*Coal*
Prices continued to decline today, led by further weakness in NEWC swaps and softer physical Newcastle offers. European gas prices also slid sharply, with front-month contracts down about 4%, adding further bearish pressure to API2. In the physical market, DES ARA bids and offers edged lower as sentiment remained weak.
Brent Crude
Brent crude futures edged lower to $63.90/bbl, down 0.39%, and are set for a second consecutive weekly loss as trade tensions and supply concerns weighed on sentiment. Market nerves were rattled after President Trump accused China of violating a tariff agreement, stoking fears of renewed friction between the world’s two largest economies. Attention is now firmly on Saturday’s OPEC+ meeting, where members will decide July output levels. Sources suggest the group may hike production beyond the planned 411,000 bpd as Saudi Arabia and Russia seek to reclaim market share and penalise overproducers. Kazakhstan’s reluctance to cut output has added tension, raising the prospect of a more aggressive increase. Prices have traded within a narrow band for most of May, but the outlook remains bearish. OPEC+ is gradually returning 2.2 million bpd of voluntary cuts, with more likely to come. Analysts at RBC Capital Markets warn the market remains tilted to the downside, with supply-side dynamics and uncertainty around U.S. shale resilience dominating sentiment.
European LNG (Dutch TTF Gas)
Dutch TTF gas futures gained 10% in May to €35.20/MWh, reversing three straight months of losses as supply constraints and geopolitical risks underpinned a rebound. The market had slumped over 20% in April amid tariff-driven trade worries, but uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s evolving policy stance has moderated some of the pressure. Meanwhile, hopes of Russian gas returning to Europe have faded, with Germany opposing any restart of Nord Stream flows as the war in Ukraine drags on. Norwegian maintenance continues to limit flows, tightening supply, while LNG cargoes are increasingly diverted to the Middle East to meet surging demand. European storage levels remain significantly lower than last year, raising concerns over replenishment ahead of winter. At 16:15 BST, TTF was up 0.15% on the day at €34.48/MWh.
Iron Ore
Iron ore futures were mixed, with Dalian’s most-traded September contract slipping 0.5% to CNY701.50/tonne during early Asian trade. The market remains under pressure from weak steel demand amid China’s off-season construction lull and softening export momentum. Despite sound supply fundamentals, pessimism lingers due to China’s uncertain property sector outlook. Beijing is reportedly considering a ban on pre-sales of uncompleted homes, which would strain developers’ cash flow and reduce steel demand. Meanwhile, iron ore futures bounced from eight-month lows after a U.S. court blocked Trump-era tariffs, offering temporary relief to industrial sentiment. Still, prices remain down 10% year-to-date. Additional downward pressure comes from speculation that mainland China could cut steel output by 50 million tonnes this year, a view echoed by Baosteel. Broader stimulus measures, including PBoC rate cuts and increased bond issuance, have yet to fully offset demand headwinds.
Copper (LME)
LME copper was flat at $9,570/tonne but remains on track for a 4.8% monthly gain — the strongest since September — driven by tight near-term supply. Inventory drawdowns continue, with LME stocks down 45% since February to their lowest in nearly a year. Meanwhile, Shanghai copper inventories rose 7.2% this week. The supply squeeze is reflected in the widening premium for nearby contracts, particularly in the U.S., where COMEX copper continues to trade at a notable premium to LME prices amid speculation around potential new tariffs. This has encouraged increased deliveries into COMEX warehouses. At 16:01 BST, LME 3-month copper was down 0.74% on the day at $9,492/tonne.
