28th May 2025
*Coal*
NEWC coal swaps gave back much of their previous day’s gains, pressured by a softer physical Newcastle market where improved offers weighed on sentiment. The retracement reflects a market recalibrating after recent strength, with limited fresh demand emerging to sustain the rally. European gas prices also edged lower, with front-end contracts down around 1%. Although the decline was modest, it contributed to a softer tone across the broader energy complex. Volatility in TTF gas has remained relatively muted compared to recent months, which in turn helped push API2 coal swaps slightly lower in sympathy.
*Brent Crude*
Brent crude climbed above $65/bbl today as the market looked ahead to Saturday’s OPEC+ meeting, where a final 411,000 bpd production hike for July is widely expected. However, Russian Deputy PM Alexander Novak said the group has yet to formally discuss the increase, leaving some uncertainty. Geopolitical developments added further complexity, with former President Trump expressing renewed frustration with Russian President Putin over stalled Ukraine peace talks and hinting at potential new sanctions against Moscow as early as this week. Meanwhile, the U.S. revoked Chevron’s ability to export Venezuelan crude under a revised license that permits asset maintenance but restricts exports and expansion. In Europe, officials are gathering investment data from large U.S. firms after Trump paused plans for steep tariffs on EU goods. July Brent was last up over 1% at $64.78/bbl at 16:00 BST.
*European LNG*
Dutch TTF gas prices held steady on Wednesday, with the front-month contract trading near €36.78/MWh. Prices moved within a narrow range, supported by balanced supply-demand fundamentals despite ongoing maintenance at Norwegian facilities such as Troll. Well-supplied conditions helped mute the market’s response to geopolitical concerns, including the fading prospect of a Ukraine ceasefire. Sentiment remains cautious, but price action was subdued. At last look, front-month TTF stood at €36.60/MWh.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore futures extended their slide, with the most-active Dalian contract closing below CNY 700/t for a fourth consecutive session. Sluggish Chinese steel production continued to weigh on demand, while rising export volumes from Australia and Brazil exerted additional downward pressure. Sentiment remains bearish amid a weak steel market and growing supply. Benchmark TSI 62% Fe fines on the SGX were trading at $95.40/t at 16:15 BST.
*Copper (LME)*
LME copper prices reflected tight physical availability today, with pronounced backwardation signalling short-term supply stress. Market participants cited increased shipments to the U.S. as exporters moved quickly to beat potential tariffs linked to a Trump-initiated probe aimed at supporting domestic smelting. At the same time, longer-term fundamentals received a boost from renewed tech-sector investment, especially in data centers, reinforcing copper’s role in electrification. LME 3-month copper was last trading at $9,570.50/t at 16:16 BST.
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