29th April 2025
*Coal*
Coal prices received modest support in early trade and remained broadly stable throughout the session, despite subdued activity in the NEWC swaps market. Traded volumes were light, suggesting limited market participation. Meanwhile, broader energy markets continued to soften, with European gas prices slipping slightly and Brent crude falling nearly 3%. However, this weakness did not spill over into coal, which appeared largely insulated from the bearish sentiment in oil and gas.
*Brent Crude*
Oil prices slipped for a second consecutive day on Tuesday, weighed down by oversupply concerns and slowing demand amid ongoing global trade tensions. Brent futures fell over 1% to around $64.90/bbl as OPEC+ prepares to release an additional 411,000 bpd in June. Persistent uncertainty over U.S.–China trade talks has also dampened market sentiment, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stating it is “up to China” to de-escalate tensions. Analysts, including Barclays, have revised demand forecasts downward, with a $4 cut to their 2025 Brent outlook. Further downside risks loom as some OPEC+ members may push for an extended output ramp-up at the May 5 meeting. Meanwhile, possible progress in U.S.–Iran nuclear talks could add more supply if sanctions are eased.
*Dutch TTF Gas*
European gas prices fell to a nine-month low, with Dutch TTF trading at €31.73/MWh late Tuesday. Mild weather and steady supply have weighed on prices, with storage levels at just 38.41%—well below last year’s levels. Rising LNG imports into Northwest Europe and record re-exports from China, driven by weak Asian demand, are adding further downward pressure. Warmer-than-average forecasts across the continent are expected to persist into next week, keeping demand subdued.
*Iron Ore*
Iron ore futures traded rangebound on Tuesday, with the Dalian I2509 contract closing at CNY 709, up 0.28%. Some restocking continued ahead of China’s Labour Day holiday, supporting prices at ports. Hot metal output—a key proxy for iron ore demand—rose month-on-month, while concerns remain over high inventories and lingering trade war uncertainty. May TSI 62% Fe fines eased slightly to $98.40/mt.
*Copper*
Copper prices gained on Tuesday, with LME 3-month copper up 0.4% to $9,417.50/tonne. US futures briefly touched $4.90/lb, buoyed by a 90-day delay in reciprocal tariffs and new exemptions for auto manufacturers—major copper consumers. The International Copper Study Group raised its 2025 surplus forecast to 289,000 tonnes, though it expects slower mine production growth. Additional upward pressure came from market concerns over potential US tariffs on copper imports, which widened the premium between US and LME contracts.
*Chrome Ore*
South African 40–42% chrome concentrate was priced at $7.57/mtu CIF Tianjin, according to SMM. Spot market activity was subdued, with buyers showing only moderate interest at elevated price levels. While ferrochrome production resumptions supported just-in-time procurement, weak demand from the stainless steel sector and cautious sentiment ahead of China’s Labour Day holiday kept chrome prices steady with limited upside in the short term.
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