London Commodity Brokers
9th April 2025
Coal
Another volatile session gripped energy, equity, and treasury markets as the U.S.–China trade war escalated, with neither side showing signs of compromise. European gas prices fell sharply, down 7% on the front month, while Brent crude briefly dipped below $60 before recovering slightly into the close. Coal swaps were more resilient but still trended lower, with both API2 and NEWC contracts posting declines.
Brent Crude
Brent crude fell over 5% to $59.69 at 16h08 BST, its lowest since February 2021, as escalating global trade tensions and rising supply rattled markets. President Trump imposed a 104% tariff on many Chinese imports, prompting China to hike its retaliatory tariffs to 84%. Canada and the EU also introduced or prepared countermeasures. Meanwhile, OPEC+ surprised markets with a faster-than-expected output hike, fuelling oversupply concerns. U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly fell by 1.1 million barrels, according to API data.
Dutch TTF Gas
European gas prices extended their decline, with Dutch TTF falling 5.27% to €33.66/MWh at 16h10 BST, the lowest since September. Trade war fears, especially the U.S.–China tariff standoff, are raising concerns about global demand. Chinese buyers are reportedly reselling U.S. LNG cargoes. Meanwhile, EU member states are considering easing gas storage targets, with proposals to allow a 10% deviation from the current 90% fill level by 1 November. Storage injections have recently exceeded the five-year average.
Iron Ore
Iron ore prices fell below CNY 690/tonne in China—near a seven-month low—on recession fears tied to rising tariffs. While direct iron and steel trade between the U.S. and China is limited, the broader slowdown threatens demand. However, China’s domestic stimulus efforts, including strong construction and manufacturing activity in March, are cushioning the decline. May 62% Fe TSI fines were slightly higher at $94.15, up 0.43% at 16h16 BST.
Copper
Copper remains under pressure from trade war-driven recession fears, though some support is emerging from opportunistic Chinese buying. U.S. copper futures rebounded toward $4.20/lb after touching a three-month low of $4.05, aided by domestic supply concerns. The rebound widened the premium between U.S. and LME contracts. LME 3-month copper was down 0.55% to $8,601 at 16h13 BST.